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| Plan your (our) rampage; You've got a huge army. What are you going to do with it? | |
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| Topic Started: Dec 13 2014, 09:06 PM (3,103 Views) | |
| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 09:58 AM Post #41 |
Magus
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Oh people starts to like stormhaven
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 10:05 AM Post #42 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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I honestly think ambushing Ionia is straight up a waste of resources and ultimately a really wasted effort considering how few units they actually have, and if Bilgewater CAN oppose us why are we going to fight them when we all KNOW they will win the battle matches and end up getting a 50% Buff against our Military? Let's attack the Frejlord IF WE ATTACK ANYONE and kill two birds with one stone: We add to our military and we can very literally force them out of Yoroth if we destroy their Military. Bilgewater has a combined average military strength of 71, Frejlord has an Average Military Strength of 54, who do we have a more likely chance of killing off even with a 50% Military Strength Buff against us? Ionia is 35, sure, but we might be able to get them to work with us in a non-military way so we shouldn't be so instantly inclined to that particular war path yet. Edited by Kaynunot, Dec 15 2014, 10:10 AM.
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| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 11:38 AM Post #43 |
Magus
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because we will clash with bilgewater anyway, so its our best bet to fight them while they are alone. and yes its hard to talk about numbers when i dont know how the military numbers are. If we are over 20-30% more str than bilge we can beat them whatever they do in the matches, we just need to win to get fewer losses. Before i forget i hope our industrial bonus was first applied to our half wounded units. |
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 11:44 AM Post #44 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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Considering Ionia's armies are essentially a non-factor in comparison to ours I think it would be more in our interest to cripple Frejlord, and basically force them under heel while taking their units. At that point Bilgewater isn't as much of a threat and we can force Frejlord to do what we want. |
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| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 11:46 AM Post #45 |
Magus
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dont belittle the combined forces. The champions pack quite the punch. 6 extra champion is like a whole army. We need to get the biggest chunk out of play if we want to go 1v3. We should realy get numbers to see how everything is standing. And dont forget that freljord has lost a lot of units if i remember right.
Edited by StormRevolver, Dec 15 2014, 11:50 AM.
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 11:52 AM Post #46 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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I already linked the numbers. If (when) Bilgewater wins their matches against us they'll get a 50% Military Strength Buff, bringing their armies to around 100? If we fight Frejlord they'll be more like 70-ish, we can still crush them underfoot with our armies and Aatrox and get rid of a major factor as well as getting quite a few new units. We still owe them for Krocylea a lot more than Bilgewater and once we assimilate Frejlord into our armies Ionia and Bilgewater will NOT be in a position to threaten us. In addition if we crush Frejlord's Armies we can essentially force them to do what we want in Yoroth or force them out entirely. |
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| 501st Big Mike | Dec 15 2014, 12:17 PM Post #47 |
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I reserve the right to be loudly opinionated on subjects I am completely ignorant of
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Alright, looking at the standings of the armies, I can give us some rough estimates of our odds. Bilgewater: Hired Mercenaries on last lore event to add 31 strength to their military, but this may put them over their cap of max military allowed on Nyroth. If they were to go over their max, part of the mercenaries would only be available to replace casualties after a battle is over. Since I don't know if they actually did go past their cap, we have to assume they didn't and the 31 strength was all added to their military. Estimated Strength: 102. Strength with +25% bonus for going 2-1 in featureds: 127, with +50% bonus for going 3-0 in featureds: 153. Ionia: Only 11 strength military survived Krocylea. Unclear how many reinforcements they brought from mainland. Freljord: 18 military strength survived Krocylea. Unclear how many reinforcements they brought from mainland. Shadow Isles: Army completely destroyed in Krocylea, starting at 0 military strength. 60 points of military brought in from mainland. 40 points of military recovered from industry rewards from Krocylea. Choosing Aatrox as leader was supposed to give about 10 more military Strength. Unclear how many troops recovered from industry (not sure if industry was rolled or not), or how much military we gain at Dayeux and Neritum. 110 military strength (estimated). Aatrox buffs: Guaranteed +20%, estimated +5% from being able to re-roll battle modifier and take higher result, estimated buff from Aatrox: 25%. Estimated total Strength: 138 25% boost for going 2-1 (50% total when added to Aatrox buff): 165, +50% bonus for going 3-0 (75% total when added to Aatrox buff): 193 SI army large enough that any battle with Bilge will most likely last 3 rounds, which is good for us as our casualties will keep on fighting thanks to Aatrox while their forces weaken each round. With this in mind, as long as we can win 1 game against bilge in the featureds we should win the battle, and I am confident that if we really want to win 1 game, we can pull it off. If anyone joins bilge for fighting us, we can't win if we don't win featured matches. If we actually win the set of featureds (unlikely, but still a possibility if we actually want it hard enough), whether we go 2-1 or 3-0 we would win even with a triple alliance against us. Any fight that does not involve Bilgewater (or some crazy strong NPC army) against us, is a hands-down SI victory guaranteed. All of this being said, this information is very incomplete. I don't know how much military strength we get from Neritum and Dayeux, how much the other factions will lose in their island events, or how much reinforcing has been done from industry or Ionia/Freljord mainland. I am expecting that our odds will improve once these events happen. |
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 12:22 PM Post #48 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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Respectfully Big Mike, we have displayed an absolute inability to win these matches when it counts. I think we should avoid Bilgewater and focus on Ionia and Frejlord for now assuming that they don't become out of control even for us. Krocylea was a big example of that, and we have consistently lost our Featured Matches even against Ionia ever since the Tournament. We need to fight someone who is a Hands Down Victory for us, and until we see otherwise I say fighting Frejlord not only gives us that advantage but we also get the advantage of forcing them out of Yoroth or gaining some narrative power against them. |
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| 501st Big Mike | Dec 15 2014, 12:27 PM Post #49 |
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I reserve the right to be loudly opinionated on subjects I am completely ignorant of
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I think that the big reason why we haven't been winning featureds since the first tournament is because we have been counting ourselves out of being able to win games. I say that if we really wanted to win, and didn't count ourselves out of it, we could win 1 game out of a set of 3. |
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| RednaxelaKor | Dec 15 2014, 12:30 PM Post #50 |
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Undead Cyborg Merman wearing Crab Armor
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Is winning against Bilgewater really that far out of reach? I personally agree with Big Mike. The only two Factions games I've played for the Shadow Isles were both wins against Bilgewater, one when they had HeavyWeaponsGuy on Graves. If we actually tryhard, we are capable of winning. Attacking the Freljord means victory, of course, but we don't know what the size of the other factions' militaries are for certain. This might allow Bilgewater to jump on us to catapult themselves into the most favorable position. Attacking Bilgewater would also help our relationship with Ionia, wouldn't it? Edited by RednaxelaKor, Dec 15 2014, 12:35 PM.
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 12:57 PM Post #51 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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At this point it seems the best question to ask is more 'Who should we attack' even though I said earlier we shouldn't force ourselves on this path. Okay, let me explain how I see attacking both factions: Bilgewater: Pros: If we win against them, we'll be able to recover a lot of lost units to use against someone else. We cripple the biggest power in the arc and essentially become the biggest superpower. Ionia and Frejlord combined SUPPOSEDLY will be weaker than us. Ionia and Frejlord also don't like Bilgewater much anyway, we might be able to negotiate not just from a 'We have the power' standpoint but also a 'We've crushed the people everyone hates' standpoint. Cons: If we lose against Bilgewater we'll be absolutely fucking crippled, we can forget about it. We lose any chance of allying with anyone because we pissed off the most powerful faction. Yep, that's it, GG if we lose, No Re. Frejlord: Pros: They are the second biggest faction but still below us in power. If we can cripple them, we can force them to work for us in Yoroth. Additionally their large military could be repurposed against Ionia, Bilgewater, and whatever NPC Factions pop up. Cons: We're not attacking Bilgewater, which leaves them still the strongest faction and combined with Ionia and any NPC Faction we might still be unable to beat them. If we lose against Frejlord, once again we are left crippled but we still have the smallest remnant of our armies to rebuild from. We could damage relations with Ionia. Ionia: Pros: They appear to be the weakest army in the arc, it should be child's play to massacre them. Cons: We are in a position where Ionia MIGHT help us if we don't backstab them. If we backstab them, we will never be able to work with them again. We haven't ever officially backstabbed them and their opinion is generally neutral leaning towards favorable since technically aside from Krocylea we have never tried to hurt them. Bilgewater and Frejlord will still be forces to be reckoned with. Edited by Kaynunot, Dec 15 2014, 12:57 PM.
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| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 01:39 PM Post #52 |
Magus
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Kuro we cant avoid bilge. They will gang up on us as soon as we step out of line. i think we have to gamble on defeating bilge, because otherwise why did we chose the rampage option. If we reinforced our half lost units first we might be in a position that we win in anycase and we shall play the matches for how much units we can keep. (We should still try our damnedest to beat them in those matches so we may gain dominance after the fight.) |
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 02:12 PM Post #53 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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So your solution, rather than attempt to consolidate more power, is to finish the Islands and then charge head-first into them? We could potentially assimilate another Faction's Armies and then fight them but instead you want to charge head-first into the people we have the worst chance against? May I remind you we have systemically had the WORST luck and WORST matches when fighting Bilgewater? Edited by Kaynunot, Dec 15 2014, 02:12 PM.
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| CupcakeTrap | Dec 15 2014, 02:17 PM Post #54 |
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Remember that sanctions do not apply in battle matches. They don't get any bans against you, and you get the newly buffed Night Terrors (33% chance to ban Flash or some other spell that isn't Smite). I don't think it's obvious that Bilgewater would go 3-0. |
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| 501st Big Mike | Dec 15 2014, 02:38 PM Post #55 |
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I reserve the right to be loudly opinionated on subjects I am completely ignorant of
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Don't forget, that as soon as we attack one army, the other 2 are going to team up (Also, don't forget that the army we beat will be able to have their forces retreat, potentially allowing them to join in on this). The military strength we would gain by beating Ionia or Freljord (1/3 their forces) would not be greater than the strength Bilge would gain when the other factions joins them (all of the other factions forces). |
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| drmigit2 | Dec 15 2014, 02:40 PM Post #56 |
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Magus
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How about this plan then? Bilgewater wants to kill the big dragon on Mag Mell. This is NOT an easy undertaking and could likely cause them to lose a majority of their army if they tried it alone. We could offer our aid, but when the battle happens we turn on Bilge, causing them to be pincered between an army of pissed off dragons and dinosaurs, and an army of the undead. The result is that Bilge is cornered and systematically decimated on their own island. |
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 02:45 PM Post #57 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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By this logic Bilgewater could retreat if we attacked them too and then we have to fight everyone. When we attack Bilgewater we run the very real risk of losing the fight and the majority of our armies but if we attack Frejlord we run much less risk of it while still gaining substantially.
Staff talked about this and we are NOT making Islands work like this. The risk of losing Neritum and Daeyux was far greater than anything we'd gain by invading anyone, so I helped convince CupcakeTrap we should make the revisits restricted purely to their respective factions and protections iron-clad. |
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| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 03:21 PM Post #58 |
Magus
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Kuro if you are afraid of attacking bilge we might as well give up. if we dont get them out of the picture first, we might as well stop because we wont be able to get them later. its simple as that. |
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| Kaynunot | Dec 15 2014, 03:44 PM Post #59 |
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Kuronan Estimare, Psionic Psion of House Estimare
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I'm not afraid of attacking Bilgewater, I'm just asking 'Do we really want to attack them first and possibly lose everything or work to consolidate our power against them and then fight them?' If circumstances say Bilgewater gets crippled then sure, but at their predicted strength I say we should look at the other factions and see if we can cripple them first. We have yet to get the estimates but we'll see what happens when we need to. Edited by Kaynunot, Dec 15 2014, 03:44 PM.
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| StormRevolver | Dec 15 2014, 03:48 PM Post #60 |
Magus
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we wont gain much from attacking anyone else. and if even 2 of them teams up its around 30-40 str in just champs |
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